26 February 2023, 9:09 PM
Update on tropical cyclone potential in the South Pacific.A tropical low is moving westwards towards Vanuatu and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone early this week. It should then curve southeast and move out of the tropics later in the week. At this stage, the risk of it directly impacting New Zealand after it leaves the tropics is relatively low as it should track to the northeast of us in about a weeks’ time. However, indirect impacts such as rain and large swells for eastern areas are more likely. There is still a lot to happen before the track becomes more certain so things could change. There is also another low in the Coral Sea that has an increased risk of developing into a tropical cyclone later in the week and could follow a similar path. We are near the historical peak of the cyclone season, so it is not unusual for tropical cyclones to develop this time of year.Our tropical cyclone activity page http://bit.ly/TropicalCycloneActivity is updated daily and we will signal any threats in the Severe Weather Outlook http://bit.ly/SWOutlook if necessary.FORCASTWarkworth RegionMonday 27th February - Showers, mostly in the east at first, becoming widespread and heavy at times from late morning until evening. Thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening with a risk of downpours. Southerlies.Severe Thunderstorm WatchPeriod: 8hrs from 1pm - 9pm Mon, 27 FebArea: Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupo, Hawkes Bay, Taihape, Wanganui, ManawatuForecast: There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for many parts of the North Island this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms will bring localised heavy rain and hail. In addition, these thunderstorms are expected to be slow-moving, and consequently there is a moderate risk that these storms could become severe, generating localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour, or possibly more. The affected areas are Northland, Auckland, Waikato, the Kaimai Range, inland Waitomo, Taumarunui, southern Rotorua, Taupo, Taihape, northern Manawatu and inland Hawke's Bay. Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips. Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.Tuesday 28th February - Partly cloudy, with isolated showers clearing by evening. Southwesterlies developing in the morning.Wednesday 1st March - Mainly fine, some afternoon cloud. Light winds.Thursday 2nd March - Fine. Light winds.Friday 3rd March - Partly cloudy. Light winds.Mangawhai RegionMonday 27th February - Mostly cloudy with a few showers, some heavy with possible thunderstorms and downpours this afternoon and evening. Southerly breezes.Severe Thunderstorm WatchPeriod: 8hrs from 1pm - 9pm Mon, 27 FebArea: Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupo, Hawkes Bay, Taihape, Wanganui, ManawatuForecast: There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for many parts of the North Island this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms will bring localised heavy rain and hail. In addition, these thunderstorms are expected to be slow-moving, and consequently there is a moderate risk that these storms could become severe, generating localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour, or possibly more. The affected areas are Northland, Auckland, Waikato, the Kaimai Range, inland Waitomo, Taumarunui, southern Rotorua, Taupo, Taihape, northern Manawatu and inland Hawke's Bay. Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips. Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.Tuesday 28th February - Partly cloudy with a few showers clearing in the afternoon. Southwesterlies.Wednesday 1st March - Mainly fine, some afternoon cloud. Light winds.Thursday 2nd March - Fine. Light winds.Friday 3rd March - Fine. Easterlies.