Tropical cyclone ‘seven’ as named by the Joint Typhoon warning Center today is currently 900km west of New Caledonia moving SE at 19 knots. Sustained winds around 45 knots, gusting to 55 knots. It has yet to be officially named by a regional met agency due to different cyclone naming thresholds, but it could be officially named by Fiji Met on Sunday.

It will continue to track SE while merging with other vortexes and head into the subtropics by Monday morning and come under the influence of the subtropical Jet stream as it transitions to a strong subtropical low, tracking towards the North Island. Most global weather model guidance is aligned to an impact on the North Island on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Extratropical cyclones entering upper North Island waters from a Northeast direction are notorious for shifting more east in the last 24 hours, so nothing is confirmed at this stage. One exception to this trend was Cyclone Bola in 1988, which moved westward off the Pacific as the ridge strengthened. This made Bola stall and become a historically significant weather event for the North Island. Read more on Cyclone Bola impacts for the upper North at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone-bola-1988

For now, enjoy some sunny breaks amongst the showers on Sunday and Monday and tidy up any loose items around the property. Keep track of the storm at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone3

Image: The main global weather models from overseas Met agencies, give the latest guidance from today on where the subtropical storm might possibly impact the North Island on late Monday to Wednesday. Storm and gale force winds will likely span around 300km from the centre.